An analysis of more than 26,000 songs has found that breakout hits all contain elements of current trends as well as something that differentiates them from the pack.
Researchers at INSEAD and Columbia Business School studied songs that appeared on Billboard’s Hot 100 from its beginning in 1958 to 2016, and found that chart-topping tracks combined familiarity with novelty.
Explaining the findings, Noah Askin, assistant professor of organisational behaviour at INSEAD said: 'The songs that reach the highest echelons of the charts bear some similarity to other popular songs that are out at the same time, but they must be unique in certain ways in order to differentiate themselves.
'Adele’s songs are great examples of the perfect typicality: she has been tremendously successful with that little bit of differentiation.'
The study took into account factors which could influence a song's popularity, such as the artist’s previous success or the profile of their record label.
It then created a 'typicality' score which compared each song with all the tracks that appeared on the charts in the previous year. This score determined how much a song sounds like its peers.
'We found that songs with a somewhat below average typicality score tended do better on the Hot 100,' said Michael Mauskapf, assistant professor of management at Columbia Business School.
He added: 'There’s a perception in the industry that top songs can be reverse-engineered based on what audiences are more likely to listen to or buy.
'But our findings show that "hit song science" will only get an artist so far – it’s very difficult to predict what kinds of songs other musicians will release, and when audiences will find them to be “optimally distinct.”'
Researchers at INSEAD and Columbia Business School studied songs that appeared on Billboard’s Hot 100 from its beginning in 1958 to 2016, and found that chart-topping tracks combined familiarity with novelty.
Explaining the findings, Noah Askin, assistant professor of organisational behaviour at INSEAD said: 'The songs that reach the highest echelons of the charts bear some similarity to other popular songs that are out at the same time, but they must be unique in certain ways in order to differentiate themselves.
'Adele’s songs are great examples of the perfect typicality: she has been tremendously successful with that little bit of differentiation.'
The study took into account factors which could influence a song's popularity, such as the artist’s previous success or the profile of their record label.
It then created a 'typicality' score which compared each song with all the tracks that appeared on the charts in the previous year. This score determined how much a song sounds like its peers.
'We found that songs with a somewhat below average typicality score tended do better on the Hot 100,' said Michael Mauskapf, assistant professor of management at Columbia Business School.
He added: 'There’s a perception in the industry that top songs can be reverse-engineered based on what audiences are more likely to listen to or buy.
'But our findings show that "hit song science" will only get an artist so far – it’s very difficult to predict what kinds of songs other musicians will release, and when audiences will find them to be “optimally distinct.”'
